See our initial thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here. The State of the Race Wednesday’s Best Visual Effects shortlist certainly summed up the season’s “artistry, diversity, scope, and innovation,” as one branch member proclaimed. There was plenty of spectacle (“Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” and “Nope”); the usual battle between Marvel (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”) and DC (“The Batman”), a franchise-ending sci-fi adventure (“Jurassic World: Dominion”), and the surprising inclusions of the World War I epic “All Quiet on the Western Front,” the Thai cave rescue dramatization “Thirteen Lives,” and the Harry Potter spin-off “Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore.” The VFX “bakeoff” on January 14 at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater will determine the category’s five nominees

Not making the cut were Marvel’s “Thor: Love and Thunder” and DC’s “Black Adam,” “Beast,” and the engaging “Gigi & Nate,” along with the supporting efforts of “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” “Devotion,” and “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.” A trio of indie dark horses likely didn’t offer enough cutting-edge work to pass muster with the Visual Effects Branch: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “RRR,” and “Good Night Oppy.” Looking over the field, the most innovative film is obviously James Cameron’s “The Way of Water” — the overwhelming favorite. Led by Wētā FX and three-time Oscar-winning senior visual effects supervisor Joe Letteri, the ocean-centric sequel featured groundbreaking underwater performance capture, a rebuilt global simulation tool set (including an FX water and fire system called Loki) for a new level of photorealism, and a game-changing muscle-based facial animation system called APFS (Anatomically Plausible Facial System). Elsewhere on the list, Jordan Peele’s deconstruction of the UFO film, “Nope,” not only contained unique wind creature and cloudscape work by MPC (led by production VFX supervisor Guillaume Rocheron), but also a new approach to converting plates shot during the day into nighttime, in conjunction with cinematographer Hoyte van Hoytema’s innovative technique for shooting large format day-for-night.

Joseph Kosinki’s high-flying “Maverick” contained the best supporting VFX of the season, in tandem with the amazing practical, in-camera flying scenes (achieved with the innovative Sony Rialto Camera Extension System overseen by cinematographer Claudio Miranda). The work was principally done by Method — now part of Framestore — and production supervised by Ryan Tudhope, and entailed more than 1,200 shots, with lots of comps (including inside the cockpits), matte paintings, environment and sky replacement, plate augmentation and cleanup, and full CG jets after takeoff and during dogfights — especially those involving gunfire and explosions.

Frontrunners

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney) “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount) “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney) “The Batman” (Warner Bros.) “Nope” (Universal)

Contenders

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix) “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” (Marvel/Disney) “Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore” (Warner Bros.) “Jurassic World: Dominion” (Universal) Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.