At the last CinemaCon, in 2019, studios and exhibitors approached the event with the common understanding that studios release their slates in theaters. Two years later, studios presume nothing and exhibitors try to keep pace. Theaters are no longer a given as studios determine the best way to release their films, whether it’s theaters, PVOD, streaming, or some combination thereof.
The annual exhibitor convention at Caesar’s Palace usually takes place in late March or early April, the better for distributors to promote their big summer titles. Studios and circuits will sing the “Big Screen Is Back” mantra in August, but this year’s CinemaCon is after, not before, that prime market. The hope is it will be a celebration, not a postmortem, and an assessment of how they plan to continue taking on a brave new world without the benefit of 90-day theatrical windows. Media turns up in Vegas for the breaking news of first trailers and exclusive footage. Fingers crossed for MGM’s “House of Gucci” and the new Paul Thomas Anderson movie, Edgar Wright’s “Last Night in Soho” starring Anya Taylor-Joy from Focus Features, and from the newly minted Warner Bros. Discovery, Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune,” starring Timothee Chalamet, and maybe, just maybe, “Matrix 4.” At this point, theaters are humbled — and debt-ridden, thanks to heavy borrowing before and during the pandemic. Recent stock manipulations aside, the third-biggest chain, Cinemark, is in better shape than AMC (the biggest) and Regal (owned by UK’s troubled Cineworld). They’re also diplomats without portfolio: What will they do for the annual sizzle reel celebrating the prior year’s top $100-million-plus domestic performers? If they relied on 2020, that would be a very short roster. Sony’s January release “Bad Boys for Life” was number 1 with $206 million, followed by Paramount’s President’s Day weekend opener “Sonic the Hedgehog,” which scored $146 million before the pandemic ended its run. After that, neither Warner Bros.’ “Birds of Prey” nor Universal’s “Dolittle” could qualify as a hit.
While the studios held back their most commercial titles for theaters, it’s a starkly different summer landscape. Memorial Day had a hit with “A Quiet Place Part 2” (Paramount), which will be followed by overseas smash “F9” (Universal). Meanwhile, Disney’s recent opener “Cruella,” like “Black Widow” and “Jungle Cruise,” is available day and date to Disney+ subscribers for an additional charge. This is the tough reality exhibitors must swallow. Meanwhile, 2020 was the year that China overtook North America as the world’s largest box office market, generating $2.7 billion vs. North America’s $2.3 billion, its lowest box office in 40 years. Asia’s box office is roaring back earlier than the rest of the world thanks to Japan’s $400-million anime “Demon Slayer: Mugen Train” and China’s “The Eight Hundred” and “My People, My Homeland,” followed by “Bad Boys for Life” ($426 million) and Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet” ($363 million). In another time, the primary concern of CinemaCon 2021 might have been whether it could catch up to Asia. This year, that’s thinking too small. The real question is, what does theatrical distribution look like, anywhere? As studios prioritize streaming, is there still enough business to support exhibition? With theaters shut down, the pandemic gave studios license to experiment with new revenue models. Universal was first out of the gate with a swift pivot to PVOD, which angered Adam Aron, CEO of AMC. Aron later struck a deal with Universal CEO Jeff Shell for a 45-day window before PVOD, marking the end of the classic 90-day exclusive theater window. Warner Media’s Jason Kilar then announced a day-and-date model for all of 2021. Focus
While NATO is hawking record attendance for the return to CinemaCon, the number of theaters dwindle as chains shed unprofitable leases and locations. Expect more discussion of how exhibitors can find other ways to make a buck, whether selling movie screenings to groups or exhibiting non-movie digital content like sports, opera, and theater. Ethan Titelman of NRG, the largest market research agency, interviewed 1 million people in 13 countries and found that 70 percent are comfortable going back. Across all markets, 55 percent are eager to return; in China, 95 percent are comfortable attending theaters now. Speaking at The Big Screen Is Back, Titelman said audiences want mask policies but “they are comfortable with loosening social distance, and when vaccines are fully available they will really be comfortable returning.” Indeed, the biggest question is one that CinemaCon can’t answer: Will audiences come back? Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.
